#FSINBA DFS INSIGHTS 1.11
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TOP PLAYS AND SITUATIONS TO WATCH
- Donovan Mitchell – With Rubio, Exum, and Neto all out, Mitchell becomes the primary ball handler for the Jazz who get a pace up in this spot vs the Lakers. With those 2 off the floor Mitchell gets a 6.2% usage increase up to a staggering 36.6% rate. We saw him drop 51.5 DK vs Orlando despite a slow start, he has similar upside here for 7900 DK and 8100 FD.
- James Harden – give me a little credit for not listing the Beard first and burying the lead a bit. Reality right now (at least for me in DFS) is if the Rockets are on a slate, im playing the Beard. Going back to the last 14 games, Harden has less then 60 twice, and those failures were 58.3 and 57.8. Essentially you are getting a floor around 65 and a ceiling around 90 yet you are still only paying $12500 on DK and $12600 on FD. People may convince themselves into fading Harden tonight claiming a blowout could occur vs the dreadful cavs. I would counter with 2 points on that and why I would still play him. 1st off, be honest with yourself and how often does a game you think will blowout actually blowout before the last 6 mins of the game. If it doesn’t, you will see Harden destroying you in the 4th. Secondly, even if Houston does blowout the Cavs, how far fetched is it for Harden to have 60 DK in the 3rd? If you want to fade him for ownership or roster construction fine…but find me in the lobbies and you will see the Beard leading me to the top.
- Milwaukee – Giannis and Bledsoe status – as of last night Giannis was probable, at time of writing he is now doubtful to play. He is everything to the Bucks, and if there is even the slightest injury worry they likely will hold him out. Now Eric Bledsoe is also questionable, making this even more juicy vs the defenseless Wizards. With Giannis off the floor, Khris Middleton sees a 9.1% usage increase to 33.4% and averages about 46 DK per 36. At $6900 on DK and $7200 he is an absolute steal. If you take Bledsoe out, that usage bumps to 37.8% and the per 36 to 50.56. Malcolm Brogdon would also be a lock with both out, averaging 40 DK per 36 at a crisp $6100 on FD and $5700 on DK Finally, you can also plan to grab Ersan Illysova, who is only $3400 on DK and $3700 on FD yet averages 39.56 DK per 36 with Giannis AND Bledsoe off the floor, and 35.15 with just Giannis off. Milwaukee would become the injury/value capital of the slate, and getting them right will decide whether you cash or not.
- Damian Lillard Status – 1 more big injury to watch is Dame Lillard. He is questionable for what is an awesome game environment at home vs the Hornets. CJ McCollum is someone who becomes a lock and load play if Dame were to miss. He gets a 7.8% usage bump up to 33.5 and this season averages about 39 DK per 36. We have seen him drop 60+ without Dame multiple times, so the upside is tantalizing. Evan Turner also deserves a look, as we would likely see him start given the need for playmaking and the absence of Maurice Harkless. Turner gets the 2nd largest usage bump on the team, with a 5.7% increase up to 22.7%. He is only $4000 on DK and would be an elite value.
COACH SPEAK: – subject to change based on ALL THE NEWS! Im going to fill this as if Lillard, Bledsoe, and Giannis all miss!
- Top stud over 9k on DK – Harden
- Top stud over 9k on FD – Harden
- Top value play under 5k on DK – Illysova/Turner
- Top value play under 5k on FD- Illysova/Turner
- Player most likely to hit 6x on DK – Middleton
- Player most likely to hit 6x on FD – Middleton
The author of this article may play in Daily Fantasy Contests using these picks and picks not mentioned in this article. It is also possible the author may change opinion on some of the picks listed based on new information not available during writing. These are recommendations meant to assist, but are not guarantees. If you have any questions, please click HERE