FSI NASCAR DUEL 125 DFS NOTES 2-11-21
125 Dues tonight with 2 slates on DK and 1 on FD. I’ll break down both strategies as we try to build some winning lines. Lot’s to consider. Who will race and who will parade? Who is on the bubble? Let’s break it all down:
The two races are 50 laps. History shows that many race their primary car in this so they don’t want to wreck it for the 500. There are less wrecks here and less cars in the field to bunch up. There are less cars so last place still scores 2x more then last place in a normal race and not as many place differential or lap bonus points ( led and fastest).
There is a mantra tonight: “Just because DK and FD give me 50 k to spend, DOES NOT mean I have to spend every sent. Leave money on the table. It’s okay. Even a few K.
Dual 1 DK –
Think the ovel all strategy is not your normal plate race stack the back because they are positioned by speed with the fastest up front. Bowen is a fade. He has the pole so this will be a safe test session. AA starting second has been good at plate races but I think he doesn’t finish second so the negative PD is a fade also.
Cindric 10, Ty Dillon 17 and Timmy Hill 20 need to race their way in. I really like Cindric and having Logano (who is 11th could win and one of my favorite plays) and DiBenedetto as Fords and team makes (directly and indirectly) with him could get out front and finish 1-3. Really like all of them. Dillon could hook up with the Gibbs Toyotas and do well also. His incentive and PD upside plus price are all a nice package. Bell starts too far forward for me but a Denny / Dillon combo makes sense. Denny could win this. Hill I don’t trust the team or equipment. He needs a lot of help to get in so GPP.
Some other quick call outs, Larson is intriguing at 8 in a Hendrick car. Newman always safe play. Custer I see a lot of people on but until I changed his track history to be both Xfin and Cup he was close to last in projections because he wrecked both Daytona races last year and DNF. McDowell had some good runs last year but also so tech issues. Jones in the Petty car that Bubba did well in last year could be a top PPD play. Reddick is very aggressive and could gain 5 + positions. Jamie Mc is a vet who knows how to stay out of trouble. He should get so PD over those who have issues. Bilicki starts last. He;s not great but his DNF rate at Daytona and over all is outstanding. He has no place to go but up so he is a great cash fill in.
Dual 2 DK
Again fading Byron up top same reason as Bowen. Bubba was fast in qualifying but I don’t see him holding the #2 position so he’s a fade. Not crazy about Harvick 3rd but his car is fast and was slowed by a tire issue or he could have had pole. He could get out front and lead a lot of laps and win so cash play but I’m not using him. If you do in a gpp pair with teammate Chase Briscoe. He was a top driver in Xfin last year and good in plate races.
Dillon was fast too but I see as a GPP. Elliot also could win this and has tried to in the past.
The Busch brothers have potential but Kyles teammate Truex usually doesn’t run hard in this race so he will have little help. Kurt is very good at this track but his teammate Ross Chastain is too aggressive and could take him out. In fact when Ricky Stenhouse calls you reckless you know there is an issue.
Mid of the pack I love Penske cars again. I think Blane who is outstanding on restrictor plate tracks and Kes pair up and do well. They are where I will start my cash builds.
This race Kaz Grala 10, Garrett Smithley 18 and Noah Gragson 22 need to race the way in. Kaz has a good car from a decent team but little experience in cup and is more of an road racer. Starts too high so I’m fading. Smithley was like McDowell light. Don’t trust the team or equipment so he’s a gpp. Gregson is a free square. Lock him in all lines. He starts last because of a tech violation he couldn’t qualify. He will go no where but up. He won many races in Xfinity. He is a good young driver. His team is affiliated with RCR and Dillions car has been fast. He’s also a good one to pair up with.
The other pair to look at are Buesher who is great a plate tracks and rookie Anthony Alfredo. Their Fords could work together to move up from 15th and 16. Alfredo could be one of the best PPD plays behind Gragson.
FD
They are using all drivers in one slate. Make sure you split it 3-2 so you don’t lose finishing point potential as they are more important here.
I’m starting around those starting 7th. AA and Stenhouse can be GPP and Harvick and Elliott Cash but they are not in many of my builds.
I like all starting 7-13th with the exception of Grala even though he has to do well to get in I don’t like his starting position or experience. He’s a fade. Cindric, Brisco, Chastain and Custer are gpp’s but if paired with a team mate then more cash relevant. Love all the Penske cars. Logano and Kes my favorite.
Lower then this I like Buescher, Alfredo, Ty Dillion (need to race in), and McMurry for cash. Again I like Gragson at 2 k min as a prime play. Should get a lot of PD points and helps you get a lot of studs. FD pricing is more on target then DK. The good plays in the middle cost more then cars up top.
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