PGA DFS Preview – No Mulligans – U.S. Open
FSI’s PGA DFS Preview
U.S. Open
Course Preview:
This week is the 120th U.S. Open Championship and golfers will head to the very difficult Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course). Winged Foot is a 7,400 yard par 70 course located in Mamaroneck, New York. The U.S. Open was last held at this course in 2006 with Geoff Ogilvy winning by one stroke over Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, and Colin Montgomerie. The main topic that is being discussed leading into the week is the length of the rough. We expect the rough to be extremely long and very penal to golfers who miss fairways this week. The greens are a poa/bentgrass mix.
Due to COVID-19, this year’s U.S. Open will feature a completely exempt field of 144 golfers. Instead of the typical qualifying events, the USGA added additional exemption categories that helped to fill the field. This means that the field from top to bottom is chalk full of the world’s best golfers.
Besides needing to be accurate off the tee, golfers will need to handle long par 3s (200+ yards) as there are 3 on the course including the 240+ yard hole #3. The course has 7 pars 4s that are 450-500 yards so we will add shots gained at this distance to our models. The last time the U.S. Open was held at Winged Foot, the cut was +10. We expect conditions to be similar so we will be targeting golfers who can avoid bogeys. Stats: Fairways gained, Approach, T2G, par 3s 200+, Par 4s 450-500, GIR, Bogey avoidance.
Field Size: 144
Cut/No-Cut Top 60 + ties
2019 U.S. Open Top 5:
-13 Gary Woodland
-10 Brooks Koepka
-7 Jon Rahm
-7 Xander Schauffele
-7 Justin Rose
-7 Chez Reavie
Last 5 U.S. Open winners:
2019 Gary Woodland
2018 Brooks Koepka
2017 Brooks Koepka
2016 Dustin Johnson
2015 Jordan Spieth
Initial players we are focusing on:
- Dustin Johnson: There is not a golfer in better form than Johnson right now. He is coming off a win at the TOUR Championship and has 4 straight events finishing top 2. Johnson won the U.S. Open in 2016 and has 4 top 5 finishes in 8 tries. Over his last 50 rounds, he ranks 9th in ball striking, 10th tee to green, 10th GIR, and 17th in bogey avoidance.
- Xander Schauffele: Schauffele always seems to show up at the top of the leader board at the U.S. Open. In the last 3 U.S. Opens, he has finished 5th, 6th, and 3rd in 2019. He is one of the most consistent golfers in the field having finished outside the top 25 just once since January. Over his last 50 rounds, Xander ranks 1st in bogey avoidance, 1st in GIR, and 5th in par 4 scoring.
- Daniel Berger: Berger is another golfer that is in great form. Just like Schauffele, he has only finished outside the top 25 once since January. In 5 U.S. Open appearances, Berger has missed one cut and has 1 top 10 (2018). Over his last 50 rounds, he ranks top 10 in approach, ball striking, tee to green, and bogey avoidance.
- Paul Casey: Casey is in good form right now having finished runner-up at the last major, the PGA Championship, in August. He followed that up with a couple solid performances in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, including a 16th place finish in his last event, the BMW Championship. Casey has participated in 10 U.S. Opens including the 2006 event played at Winged Foot where he finished 15th. Over the past 50 rounds, Casey ranks 5th in ball striking, 5th GIR, and 8th in bogey avoidance.
Others to consider:
Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Webb Simpson, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Harris English
The author of this article may play in Daily Fantasy Contests using these picks and picks not mentioned in this article. It is also possible that the author may change their opinion on some of the picks listed based on new information not available during writing. These are recommendations meant to assist, but are not guarantees. If you have any questions, please contact us.
