No Mulligans – BMW Championship

FSI’s PGA DFS Preview

BMW Championship

Course Preview:

After a complete blowout win by Dustin Johnson at the Northern Trust, the PGA Tour moves on to round 2 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.  This week’s event, the BMW Championship, will be played at Olympia Fields County Club (North Course) located in Olympia Fields, Illinois.  Olympia Fields has hosted 4 major championships including the 2003 U.S. Open won by Jim Furyk (-8).  The course was also host to the 2015 U.S. Amateur, won by Bryson Dechambeau.  This is a par 70, 7,300 yard course with bent grass greens, long & thick roughs, and lots of tree lines fairways.

This week, driving distance will not be as important as driving accuracy.  We will be focusing on golfers who rank well in fairways gained.  With all the fairway and greenside bunkers, we will add sand saves to our models this week.  Like most every week, shots gained on approach will be important as well.

Field Size:           70

Cut/No-Cut        No Cut

2019 Top 5 (BMW @ Medinah CC):

1st Justin Thomas

2nd Patrick Cantlay

3rd Hideki Matsuyama

4th Tony Finau

T5 Brandt Snedeker

T5 Jon Rahm

 Initial players we are focusing on:

  • Justin Thomas: Thomas has been struggling with the putter lately, losing a total of nearly 10 strokes over his last 3 events.  Since the pandemic stoppage, he ranks 2nd on approach, 7th GIR, 4th sand saves, and 30th in fairways gained.  If we look long-term, over the last 75 rounds, he ranks #1 on approach, #1 on par 4s, #1 BS, and #1 T2G.  We believe Thomas has a great chance to finish at the top of this week’s leaderboard.
  • Collin Morikawa: After missing the cut at the Northern Trust, Morikawa now has 2 career missed cuts to go along with his 2 wins as a pro.  He had a terrible week losing 4.3 strokes on approach, a career worst.  We expect a quick bounce back him this week.  Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks #2 in fairways gained, #10 GIR, and #21 on approach.  We expect Morikawa’s accuracy off the tee and on approach to carry him up the leaderboard this week.
  • Kevin Kisner: Kisner is in fantastic form right now with 4 straight top 25 and back to back top 5s.  Although the putter has been a big help to his recent success, he has also been gaining a ton of strokes on approach with 14.8 strokes gained in his last 3 events.  Kisner is an accurate driver as well ranking 20th over the last 24 rounds.  Currently ranked 23 in the FedEx Cup standings, Kisner will need a solid week to keep his spot in the top 30 punch his ticket to the TOUR Championship.
  • Russell Henley: Henley will be a popular DFS choice this week due to his current form.  He finished top 10 in his last 2 events where he gained strokes OTT, APP, ARG, & Putting.  His irons have been red hot lately ranking #1 in approach and GIR over the last 24 rounds.  He also ranks #7 in fairways gained since the pandemic stoppage.

Others to consider:

Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger, Harris English, Viktor Hovland.

 

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