No Mulligans – The Northern Trust

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The Northern Trust

Course Preview:

Week one of the FedEx Cup Playoffs takes place this week at TPC Boston in Norton, MA.  This is a par 71, 7,300 yard course with very fast bent grass greens.  Arnold Palmer is the course designer, thus the course has small greens and course management will be key.

This FedEx Cup Playoff Round 1 of 3 includes the top 125 golfers from the 2020 FedEx Cup points list.  Golfers will be trying to earn enough points to finish in the top 70 after the Northern Trust to qualify for next week’s BMW Championship.  This leaves golfers like Rickie Fowler (88th), Tommy Fleetwood (89th), and Brooks Koepka (97th) in need of a good week if they wish to continue into the playoffs.

Golfers with long drives will have an advantage this week, so we have added driving distance to our models.  Ball striking and greens in regulation will be key this week as well.  The three par 5 are not the easiest, but we will be targeting golfers who can score on these, giving themselves an advantage on the field.  Other stats we like this week include good drives gained, T2G, Proximity from 175-200 and scrambling.

Field Size:           125

Cut/No-Cut        Top 65 + Ties

2019 Top 5 (at Liberty National, GC):

-16 Patrick Reed

-15 Abraham Ancer

-14 Jon Rahm

-14 Harold Varner III

-13 Adam Scott

Last 5 winners (Dell Technologies Championship):

2018 -16 Bryson Dechambeau

2017 -17 Justin Thomas

2016 -15 Rory McIlroy

2015 -15 Ricky Fowler

2014 -15 Chris Kirk

Initial players we are focusing on:

  • Bryson Dechambeau: Bryson will be a popular choice this week due to his current form and course history. He finished 30th  in 2017 and won the Dell Technologies Championship in 2018. His last 10 PGA events resulted in 8 top 10s, a runner-up and one win at Rocket Mortgage.  Since the pandemic stoppage, Bryson ranks #1 in this field in driving distance, #1 on par 4s, #2 putting, and #4 ball striking.
  • Jason Day: Day has quietly been playing incredible golf over the last month.  He has 4 straight top 10s including his 4th place finish at the PGA Championship and 4th place at the Memorial.  Day has played this course numerous times leading to 6/7 cuts made and 5 top 25 finishes.  Since the pandemic stoppage, he ranks #2 on par 5s, 7th T2G, 8th in scrambling, and 21st
  • Paul Casey: Casey is another golfer who has had a lot of success on this course.  He finished 2nd in 2016, 4th in 2017, and 21st in 2018.  He is also in good form with his runner-up finish at the PGA Championship followed by a 31st place finish last week.  Putting has always been Casey’s weakness, but he gains strokes on bent grass greens.  In this field since the pandemic stoppage, he ranks top 20 in T2G, BS, OTT & APP.  Looking at his long-term rankings, he is 7th on approach over his last 75 rounds and 5th in GIR.
  • Abe Ancer: Ancer has been a popular option for DFS players lately, and we do not expect that trend to stop this week. He is up to 15 made cuts in a row including 4 top 15s in his last 6 events.  Ancer has played this course once, finishing 7th place in the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship.  Looking at how he ranks in this field since the pandemic, Ancer is 14th on approach, 14 BS, 24th T2G, and 28th  His weakness is around the greens, but thankfully he so good at finding the greens in regulation (rank 19th), he spends most of his holes putting for birdie.

 

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